The Portuguese Presidential election on Sunday saw the center-left party of António José Seguro triumph over the far-right, but the runoff ballot is yet to be decided on February 8, when André Ventura, the populist anti-globalist, will have his chance.
Apart from the fateful election, Portugal has been caught by another aspect of it – prediction markets, and specifically, Polymarket, which saw large volumes of trading move on the Sunday election results before the results’ announcements, raising fears that insider information had leaked.
Polymarket Trading Patterns Suggest Inside Trading
According to local media reports, as much as $4.3 million has been wagered on the Presidential election in various markets on the platforms over a short window of time, pointing to someone with potential inside knowledge of the country’s internal affairs.
Portugal has responded by issuing a cease-and-desist letter to the property, suggesting that insiders may be profiteering from the outcome of the elections.
Case in point is Seguro’s victory, which won with Polymarket’s odds starting at 60% in the early afternoon, only to move to 100% before the official results were announced, pointing to someone privy to the matter.
Portuguese Regulator None the Wiser Before Sunday
The SRIJ has moved swiftly to order the platform to halt all activity in the country and withdraw from the market, acknowledging that the watchdog had not been tracking its activity before Sunday.
However, the regulator is not the only national-government body to have moved and acted against the platform. Ukraine and France have both issued similar blocking orders against the platform, arguing that it was a form of illegal gambling.
Polymarket is now facing its first legal challenge in the United States, where it has been brought to court by the Gaming Control Board (NGCB) in Nevada.
