Obama recently said that he believes aliens are real, sparking a new wave of interest in extraterrestrial life. The statement was only reinforced by Trump’s vow to release alien-related files. This, of course, led to a surge in prediction market activity, revealing that traders are not fully convinced.
Obama and Trump Suggest Aliens Might Be Real
In a recent interview, former President Barack Obama said that aliens are real, but said that he hasn’t seen them. In addition to making this bold statement, Obama said that there was not a huge underground facility dealing with extraterrestrial life, unless there was a huge conspiracy.
On February 20, current President Donald Trump addressed the matter, acknowledging the growing interest in extraterrestrials.
Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAP, UFOs, and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters.
Donald Trump
Statistics show that this statement led to a spike in trading activity as prediction market users put more money into alien-related markets. However, data shows that most remain unconvinced that the USA will confirm the existence of aliens.
What Traders Have to Say?
Several days ago, Kalshi’s trading volume on the “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027” market was $1.3 million. Since Obama and Trump’s recent statements, however, there has been a huge spike in interest, with the current volume standing at a whopping $6.7 million (as of February 23).
The current market consensus is that there is approximately 20% chance of this happening. While this highlights significant skepticism, it still goes to show that, according to some traders, the existence of aliens could be confirmed very soon.
Polymarket data paints a similar picture, with the “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” market showing a spike in interest. The current trading volume stands at $5.8 million and suggests a 14% likelihood that a US official will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life.
In the meantime, the “Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?” market has so far accumulated a volume of $16,898, as traders give it a 29% chance of happening.
