A strange and troubling situation has emerged at the intersection of journalism and online betting, after a reporter said he was pressured to change his reporting to influence the outcome of a prediction market.
Over $14M in Wagers
According to a report published by The Times of Israel, military correspondent Emanuel Fabian was contacted by individuals who had placed bets on Polymarket.
The messages started after Fabian reported that an Iranian missile struck an open area near Beit Shemesh on March 10. That detail mattered because of a specific betting contract on the platform, titled “Iran strikes Israel on…?”, which had reportedly attracted more than $14 million in wagers.
Under the rules of that market, the outcome depended on whether Iran carried out a strike on Israeli territory that day. However, if a missile were intercepted before impact, it would not have counted toward the bet.
Fabian said that after his report was published, he received dozens of messages through email, social media, and messaging apps.
Some individuals allegedly asked him to revise his article to say the missile had been intercepted instead of hitting the ground.
One message reportedly went much further, with a WhatsApp user threatening to “finish” him if the report wasn’t changed.
“You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence. If you do not correct this by 01:00 Israel time today, March 15, you are bringing upon yourself damage you have never imagined you would suffer,” said the message.
Despite the frightful text that also included personal information on his family and whereabouts, the journalist refused to give in to the demands of the user who claimed he had wagered $900,000 on the outcome.
Fabian explained his reporting was based on information from Israeli rescue services and military sources, and later filed a police complaint while sharing the messages that he received with authorities.
“Death Bets” Must Be Banned
The incident has drawn attention to the rapid growth of prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can place bets on real-world events, including political decisions and geopolitical developments.
Billions of dollars have already been injected into these markets in recent months. At the same time, critics argue that contracts tied to sensitive issues such as war or violence create incentives for manipulation.
US lawmakers have started to respond, with Adam Schiff and Mike Levin recently introducing legislation aimed at banning so-called “death bets,” covering wagers linked to war, assassinations, or fatalities.
“Betting on war and death should be illegal,” Levin said.
Separate concerns have also been raised after reports that some traders made significant profits by correctly predicting military actions shortly before they happened.
Reflecting on the experience, Fabian said: “The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed,” he wrote. Polymarket said it has banned the accounts involved and is cooperating with authorities, calling the behavior a clear violation of its rules.
