A new investor note by Truist Securities and analyst Barry Jonas finds that prediction markets have one very strong business card they will play over the coming decades: the average age of their user base.
According to the findings, only 7% of the platform’s users are over 49, putting Polymarket well ahead of traditional sports betting companies, which are vying to attract the same demographics.
How Old Are Prediction Market Users?
Another 5% of users are 21 or younger, and the largest demographic is people aged 30 to 39, who make up 36% of the player base. Those aged 22-29 make up 22% of all users, and players in their 40s account for another 31%.
Truist Securities also studied the profiles of these players, determining how many held a degree and what their income was. 19% hold a college degree, and another 26% hold a graduate degree. The player base is fairly well-to-do: 36% of players earn between $50,000 and $100,000 a year, but only 3% earn more than $250,000 on the platform.
Another 30% of players earned between $100,000 and $150,000. Another highlight of the findings is that most of these users are based in states where sports betting is still not regulated, with California accounting for 16% of the player base, and Texas coming in second at 9%.
This also explains why sports event contracts were the preferred markets for users: 76% placed their trades on those options.
Out of these sports event contract traders, 83% traded on NFL outcomes, and another 50% traded on NCAAF and NCAAB outcomes. The NBA also saw a similar number of users place trades on it – 81%.
53% of the user base also placed trades based on economic indicators, 47% on election results, and, not least, 44% on corporate developments. 39% of users would even bet on the weather.
Jonas also explored attitudes toward how these players treat prediction markets in the first place. 18% agreed that they are “speculative gambling” that involves knowledge and understanding of the subject matter.
In contrast, another 20% believed that these platforms are an investment – this view contrasts with 61% of Americans who believe that prediction markets are simply gambling.
How Much and How Often Do Prediction Markets Users Trade?
As to how frequently players traded on prediction markets, it varied as well. Some (21%) traded daily, while others (29%) traded several times a week. 19% only placed their bets monthly.
As for how much users were willing to risk, trade sizes varied but usually ranged from $51 to $100 for 26% of all players, with another quarter (25%) placing trades between $101 and $250. Still more impressively, though, 22% of the user base would place trades up to $999, with 5% freuqnelty trading $1,000 or more per contract.
As for their preferred prediction market platform, users were split here as well, but Kalshi pulled well ahead, with 58% of users. Traditional rivals such as Polymarket and Robinhood only clocked 34% of the total user base, whereas newly arrived sports betting rivals – DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts have secured 46% and 44% of the entire user base, respectively. Coinbase brought up the rear with 23%.
